Looking at Boise’s “Middle” Homes Over Time

I’ve seen a lot of “click bait” posts lately about an impending market crashes, housing unaffordability, and the unsustainable pricing of homes today. I wish I’d saved a graph or two from these posts–the next one I see, I’ll update here. But the gist usually is that the run up in pricing since 2019, whether in Boise or nationally, is pictured with a very steep upward trendline showing average prices that are seemingly out of control.

Now, we did see unsustainable price appreciation here in Boise from 2019 through the first half of 2022, however, we also saw some other shifts during that time. We saw an increase of average home sizes, with new construction homes that were much larger than the existing housing stock. We also saw an exploding luxury market with out of state buyers flocking to much, much larger luxury properties, particularly in east Boise, north Boise, Eagle, and parts of Meridian. As a whole, this pulled up our average pricing in our market. Since much of the data we see is for all of Ada county and lumps new and existing homes together, some of our local swings in prices look more dramatic than what was actually happening.

For this month’s update, I wanted to take a look at how the average price for a middle-of-the-road home performed since 2000 (as far back as I have data in our MLS).

For this analysis, I focused on a very specific slice of the market: Boise resale homes between 1,200–1,800 square feet, with at least 3 bedrooms, 1.5+ baths, and a 1–2 car garage. These are what I’d call classic starter and downsizer homes — not tiny, not oversized, not luxury. Just solid, livable homes “in the middle.”

What stood out to me

Prices moved — but not wildly
When you look at average sold prices over time, the ups and downs are there, but they’re much smoother than the market as a whole. The price growth that started in 2011 as we recovered from the Great Recession was very steady through 2020 (with acceleration in ’18 and ’19) followed by a extreme jump from 2020-2021 and then less extreme movement ever since.

Over the past 20+ years, this segment has averaged about a 5.8% annual return. That’s not a speculative number — it’s just what happened, year after year, through good markets and tough ones, including four years of price drops that had experts at the time putting out headlines like, “home prices may never recover!” I remember reading those headlines and shaking my head.

Days on market Over Time
The days-on-market chart reflects the same major moments we all remember: the slowdown in the late 2000s, the long recovery afterward, and the very fast pandemic-era market. Note that in recent years, while days on market have grown, they are still much shorter than the early 2000’s.

Our “middle of the market” homes in Boise have continued to enjoy relatively short market times and the increase in 2025 was modest.

Sales volume is down but level
The overall volume of Boise resale has remained steady but below peaks in 2017 an 2018. This tight inventory reflects sellers who are staying put and fewer buyers. Low inventory has fueled the price stability of the past few years.

The longer view

This kind of data is why I tend to be pretty calm about real estate over the long run.

Boise’s “middle” homes haven’t been about timing the market perfectly. They’ve been about steady ownership, livability, and time. Buyers who have purchased in any market have experienced success with TIME and patience.

That doesn’t mean every year is a win, or that short-term decisions don’t matter. But when people hold these homes through multiple cycles, the overall picture ends up looking a lot more stable than the headlines often suggest.

Why this matters now

It’s easy to feel uncertain when the market is changing — especially if you’re only looking at recent data. Pulling a longer history helps put today into perspective.

If you’re curious how your own home fits into this bigger picture, or how different segments of the Boise market compare, I’m always happy to run the numbers. Context matters, and one year rarely tells the whole story.