July Market Update

July is a funny month in real estate. On paper, it’s still one of the strongest months of the year. Historically, it ranks as the fourth strongest month for new pending sales, the second strongest month for closings, and the fifth strongest month for new listings in the Boise resale market. Yet because it follows the frenzied pace of May and June—the busiest months of the year by nearly every measure—July can feel like the market has suddenly hit the brakes.

I think of it like driving down the freeway at 90 mph and then easing back to 70 when the speed limit is 65. You’re still moving faster than you should be, but compared to where you were just moments ago, it feels surprisingly slow. That’s often how the July market feels. Activity is still strong; it’s just no longer operating at spring’s breakneck pace.

This year is no exception. Several weeks since mid-June have produced fewer new pending sales than we saw during the spring surge, but overall July is still shaping up to be another healthy month for the Boise resale market. The chart below is admittedly a little dense, but it tells the story well. Once you move past the remarkable burst of buyer activity in late March and April, you can see that today’s market isn’t weak—it’s simply returning to a more sustainable seasonal pace.

One of my favorite metrics to track is the original-to-sold price ratio. While the MLS reports a “list-to-sold” ratio, that compares the sold price only to the home’s final asking price after any price reductions. The original-to-sold ratio tells a more complete story by measuring where sellers started and where they ultimately ended up. Looking back to 2022, this chart shows that ratio by closing week and how 2026 compares to recent years. So far, this year is tracking closely with 2024 and 2025—and even running slightly stronger than the past three years overall. One trend I’m watching closely is a recent uptick in the original-to-sold ratio as June contracts begin to close. If that continues, it could be an early sign that pricing power is improving and that home values may continue to appreciate.

This graph tells a similar story. Average sold prices for Boise resale homes continue to trend higher, with recent closings surpassing the previous market peak reached in May and June of 2022. That’s particularly noteworthy given that today’s buyers are purchasing in a much higher interest rate environment than they were just a few years ago. Strong demand, limited resale inventory, and continued economic growth are supporting home values across the Treasure Valley. On Boise’s east side in particular, Micron’s expansion appears to be adding another layer of demand as new hiring, supplier growth, and stock-based wealth contribute to increased real estate activity. While market conditions always vary by neighborhood and price range, the overall trend continues to point toward steady appreciation in the Boise resale market.

Lastly, here’s a nerdy—but one of my favorite—charts. Looking back six years in the Boise resale market, this graph shows the average original-to-sold price ratio based on days on market. Homes that go under contract within the first seven days—the ones that are the most market-ready and priced appropriately from the start—consistently sell at or even above their original asking price. As time on the market increases, that ratio gradually declines, illustrating an important truth: the longer a home sits, the more negotiating leverage shifts to the buyer. While there are always exceptions, this chart reinforces why thoughtful pricing and strong presentation from day one often lead to both a faster sale and a better financial outcome.

Furthermore, if you look at the average sold price per square foot in the same way, you’ll see that the homes that sold fastest also featured the highest sold prices overall. Shoot me an email to andrea@boisegroup.com and I can send you this graph if you’d like it.

Overall, the July Boise resale market remains remarkably healthy. Buyers are active, well-priced homes continue to sell quickly, and pricing power has remained resilient despite higher interest rates. As we look ahead, I’m excited to see how the fall market unfolds. Historically, September and October have been strong months for resale homes, with motivated buyers making decisions before the holiday season and year-end.

If you’re thinking about selling this fall, now is the time to start planning. The most successful listings don’t come together overnight, and we’re already working with homeowners preparing for September and October launches. A little preparation now can make a meaningful difference when it’s time to hit the market.

And for buyers, my advice is simple: don’t wait for the “perfect” time. Boise’s resale market is showing encouraging signs of renewed appreciation, and history has shown that waiting for lower prices often means paying more later. If you find the right home and it fits your long-term plans, today’s market continues to offer excellent opportunities.